Notes
A finite series of twenty-four essays on saturation, attention, and the engineered chaos of contemporary politics. Companion to Flooding the Space (Prometheus, 2026).
- No. 13 · Field NoteAugust 25, 2026
Is the FTSeffect falsifiable?
An equation that accommodates every outcome is not an equation. Where the model is empirical, where it is only a heuristic, and what would make me abandon it.
995 words · 7 min read → - No. 12 · Field NoteAugust 18, 2026
T and R: Why the Denominator Matters More Than the Numerator
Five variables sit on top of the equation and two sit underneath. Almost everyone watches the top. The operators worth worrying about are working on the bottom.
934 words · 6 min read → - No. 11 · Field NoteAugust 11, 2026
A is for Authority Mimicry: The Deepfake That Wasn't
In Gabon, a real video called fake helped launch a coup. The costume of authority cuts in both directions, and no fake is required.
800 words · 6 min read → - No. 10 · Case FileAugust 4, 2026
C is for Coordination: The Kenya Playbook
Two thousand sincere people is a public. Two thousand accounts on a schedule is an operation. In Nairobi, researchers found the schedule, and the rate card.
790 words · 6 min read → - No. 09 · Source ReadingJuly 28, 2026
E is for Emotional Charge: Vosoughi, Roy, Aral, Revisited
The most cited study in this field is also the most misread. What the 2018 Science paper actually measured, and what it does not license us to claim.
880 words · 6 min read → - No. 08 · Case FileJuly 21, 2026
F is for Frequency: The 2024 Romanian Annulment
A candidate polling near the margin of error in October finished first in November. What changed in between was not persuasion. It was cadence.
870 words · 6 min read → - No. 07 · Case FileJuly 14, 2026
V is for Volume: Brasília, January 8
One week after Lula’s inauguration, thousands walked into three federal buildings that had already been walked into online. The clearest single-event demonstration of the first variable in the equation.
840 words · 6 min read → - No. 06 · Margin NoteJuly 7, 2026
A note on method
What this column is, what each post owes the reader, and the rule for what stays in the Sources block.
510 words · 4 min read → - No. 05 · Field NoteJune 30, 2026
Saturation is not noise
Noise is what the channel does to the signal. Saturation is what the sender does to the channel. The distinction decides what defenses can possibly work.
820 words · 6 min read → - No. 04 · Source ReadingJune 23, 2026
Reading Hannah Arendt in 2026
Three sentences from Arendt—two from Origins, one from “Truth and Politics”—that diagnose the FTSeffect three-quarters of a century early.
870 words · 6 min read → - No. 03 · Case FileJune 16, 2026
The seven variables, in one page
V·F·E·C·A over T·R, in plain English. Five attack surfaces, two defenses, no equation—yet.
940 words · 6 min read → - No. 02 · Field NoteJune 9, 2026
What “flooding the space” actually means
The Bannon line is quoted as a dark joke. It is, in fact, a method—with inputs, outputs, and an intended effect.
820 words · 5 min read → - No. 01 · Margin NoteJune 2, 2026
Why I wrote a book about chaos
Not because the world is noisy. Because the noise is engineered, and someone has to name the engineer.
760 words · 4 min read →
Notes is published every Tuesday for twenty-four weeks beginning June 2026. Each post is signed, dated, and held to between five hundred and one thousand words. Sources appear at the foot of every post.